As
elections go Monday night was rather exciting not because of some very tight
races, but because of the growing hysteria fueled by the on-air media coverage
about the tabulation. “Glitches” with the tabulation machinery, “missing” data
chips/cards (actually in transit to the central returning office), no one at
Elections New Brunswick returning calls, and having to wing-it when you run out
of relevant things to say, increased to an on-air panic rife with throw-back
comments (“we won’t say this, but oh we are saying it”) about the 2000 U.S.
election and Florida. This all peaked between midnight and one in the morning
when an on-air personality grilling the head of Elections New Brunswick
suggested this was all because some local returning officers had gone home for
the night with the data chips and was also part of a conspiracy foisted on New
Brunswick by a Toronto computer company that were suspiciously not answering
their phones. It seemed lost on this personality that maybe no one was
answering calls because they were too busy doing their jobs of tabulating the
results and checking for correctness. (This it later turned out included
representatives from the Toronto computer company, who were in Fredericton
helping to solve the problem and oversee the process. So much for the central
Canadian conspiracy). On top of all this, a PC candidate stated lawyers had
told him not to concede and then a spokesman (not the leader) from the
trailing Progressive Conservative Party announced they were not going to
recognize the count unless it was done by hand.
So much
for trying to increase or even maintain public belief in the
electoral system and the democratic process. Here’s another nail for
democracy’s coffin, i.e., its legitimation crisis.
That
first hour of the new day must be the darkest (and the most surreal), because by
morning saner heads (and reporting) had prevailed. The count was tabulated and
the results accepted, with the exception of a few ridings that are so close as
to merit recount (see below), the Premier-elect (Liberal Gallant) was doing the
media rounds and touting the optimism of transition, the Premier-defeated (P.C.
Alward) was ‘taking in the fall colours’ and announcing his resignation as
leader, and all others were full of comment on the significance of the success
of the Green Party leader, David Coon, in winning his riding of Fredericton
South. The lone third party representative in the provincial legislature, Coon
achieved something the leader of the New NDP, Dominic Cardy, was unable to pull
off.
There
really is no traction for third party representation in this province. The
number of ridings and votes splits within those few ridings mean it is very
difficult for third parties to concentrate support locally enough to win a
seat. Past success has gone to parties like the CORE, the Confederation of
Regions, which as a pro-English party ran regionally within the province and
concentrated itself. Although the same cannot be said for its new iteration as
the People’s Alliance even with the leader Chris Austin running a very close second in Fredericton-Grand
Lake. The former NDP leader Elizabeth Weir appears to have built success in
winning her seat based on personal popularity and support, which is very
similar to this time’s success of Green Party candidate David Coon. He appears
popular in a riding that is home to two university campuses and the associated
progressiveness that comes with that.
In
keeping with the focus of this blog, however:
It is
women candidates who are most affected by this situation because as I pointed
out in my previous post it was the third and fourth parties who ran the most women.
Further to this the lack of a Liberal landslide and the close division of party
seats in a small legislature means an even smaller number of women in seats. So
few seats, combined with a moderate number of seats changing hands, and a
moderate number of safe seats usually held by men, means fewer chances for women. It is not
a surprise that the four women in the now opposition Progressive Conservative
caucus were all incumbents. Of the four women who won seats in the Liberal
government, three beat incumbents (one defeating a P.C. female incumbent), and
the fourth ran in a riding with no incumbent. When the switch is part of a
landslide incumbency is much less of a factor and more women will tend to win.
So the
new legislature has 8 women representatives: 4 Liberal MLAs and four P.C. 16%
of the 49 seats. 14.8% of the Liberal government and 19% of the PC opposition
caucus. This might change because of a number of close ridings where a recount
is inevitable, including P.C. Pam Lynch’s.
They are
as follows:
Liberals
- · Francine Landry, Madawaska les Lacs Edmunston
- · Lisa Harris, Miramicki Bay Neguac
- · Monique Leblanc, Moncton East
- · Cathy Rogers, Moncton South
Progressive
Conservative
·
Sherry
Wilson, Moncton Southwest
- · Dorothy Shephard, Saint John Lancaster
- · Madeleine Dube, Edmunston Madawaska (the P.C.’s lone francophone)
- · Pam Lynch, Fredericton Grand Lake. This is one of the close ridings with only 73 votes separating the first and third place. Second place is the People’s Alliance party leader Chris Austin and third is a female Liberal candidate, Sheri Shannon.
It
should also be noted that yesterday (Wednesday Sept. 24) Premier-elect Gallant
announced his government would go ahead with his campaign promise to review
abortion access in the province. With the closing of the private Morgantaler
clinic in Fredericton access has been limited to hospital admission on the
authority of a physician, psychologist and or social worker, almost a return to
the therapeutic abortion committees of the past. One of the things that strikes
me about how this issue plays here is that it is framed much less in terms of
gender but more in terms of religion. Conversations with people on the issue
evoke concerns regarding conservative religious tradition more so than gender
equality even though the two cannot be really separated. It is a feature that could be an interesting avenue for research regarding different
regional attitudes and political cultures.
Below is
a colour coded chart breaking down the election results (yes, I am
procrastinating from another project I need to finish).
The
legend is as follows:
- · Pink/purple marks a successful female candidate (yes, I know it’s a stereotypical colour but it is effective).
- · Shaded boxes are riding that switched parties. Not surprising the higher the voter turnout the more likely it was the riding changed hands.
- · Green colour indicates significant Green party support. This means the Green Party, along with the one win, came second or third in the standings, or were within 200 votes of the third place NDP. Yes there does appear to be some overlap of Green support with the areas slated for fracking or exploration of fracking, such as both Kent ridings (whose regional municipality took a stance against development 18 months ago), Albert, Sussex Funding, etc.
New Brunswick Ridings
(ranked by voter turnout)
75-80%
|
70-75%
|
65-70%
|
60-65%
|
55-60%
|
50-60%
|
45-50%
|
Shippagan-Lemeque Miscou
(77.5)
Liberal
|
Caraquet
(74.94)
Liberal
|
Fredericton West Hanwell
(69.67)
P.C.
|
Quispamsis
(64.76)
P.C.
|
Moncton Northwest
(59.57)
P.C.
|
St. John East
(54.85)
Liberal
7 vote lead
|
St. John Harbour
(47.35)
Liberal
71 vote lead
|
Tracadie-Sheila
(76.92)
Liberal
|
Shediac-Beaubassin Cap Pele
(73.15)
Liberal
|
Shediac Bay Dieppe
(69.54)
Liberal
Greens within 183 of
NDP
|
Bathurst East- Nepisiguit-Saint-Isadore
(64)
Liberal
|
Hampton
(58.96)
P.C.
|
Moncton
Southwest
(54.77)
P.C.
|
|
Kent South
(76.88)
Liberal
Greens 3rd
|
Restigouche-West (73)
Liberal
|
Victoria la Vallee
(68.98)
Liberal
Greens within 118 of
NDP
|
Gagetown– Pedicodiac
(63.74)
P.C.
|
Moncton Centre
(58.39)
Liberal
(Liberal incumbent defeats PC
incumbent)
|
Portland - Simonds
(51.43)
P.C.
|
|
Kent-North
(72.7)
Liberal
Greens 2nd
|
Fredericton York
(67.98)
P.C.
|
Albert
(63.21)
P.C.
Green 3rd
|
Moncton South
(55.58)
Liberal
|
|||
Miramichi Bay
Neguac
(72.02)
Liberal
Green within 21 of
NDP
|
Edmunston
Madawaska
(67.78)
P.C.
|
Carleton
(63.17)
P.C.
Green 3rd
|
||||
Fredericton South
(71.27)
Green party
|
Fredericton North
(67.09)
Liberal
|
Madawaska les
Lacs Edmunston
(63.14)
Liberal
|
||||
Miramichi
(71.07)
Liberal
Greens within 21
votes of NDP
(Liberal incumbent defeats PC
incumbent)
|
New Maryland-
Sunbury
(67.09)
P.C.
|
Bathurst West – Beresford
(63.04)
Liberal
|
||||
Southwest Miramichi Bay du Vin
(71.02)
P.C.
Greens within 147 of
NDP
|
Campbellton Dalhousie
(66.93)
Liberal
|
Moncton East
(62.75)
Liberal
|
||||
Fredericton
Grand Lake
(70.65)
P.C.
73 vote difference between 1st and 3rd.
|
Restigouche Chaleur
(66.68)
Liberal
NDP is 2nd
|
Fundy the Isles West St. John W
(62.74)
Liberal
(Liberal incumbent defeats PC
incumbent)
|
||||
Memramcook-Tantramar
(66.56)
Liberal
Green 3rd
|
St. John
Lancaster
(62.67)
P.C.
|
|||||
Dieppe
(66.21)
Liberal
|
Riverview
(61.8)
P.C.
Green within 181 of
NDP
|
|||||
Carleton Victoria
(65.13)
Liberal
83 vote lead
|
Charlotte Campobello
(61.59)
Liberal
Green within 62 of
NDP
|
|||||
Carleton York
(65.08)
P.C.
|
Sussex-Fundy
St. Martins
(61.55)
P.C.
Green within 82 of
NDP
|
|||||
Rothesay
(61.4)
P.C.
|
||||||
Oromocto-Lincoln
(60.61)
P.C.
|
||||||
Kings Centre
(60.18)
P.C.
|
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