Another Maritime Election with no great breaks for women's representation

I’m starting with the PEI election of Monday May 4^th for a number of reasons. As a much smaller election it takes less time to break down and comment on and I have a number of things on my plate at the moment. I also find the often overlooked Maritime Provinces interesting and think there may be some cultural features that differentiate women’s political experiences here from other parts of Canada.  Plus, this election has now been totally eclipsed by the success of the snowball overcoming the heat of hell as seen in the NDP victory in Alberta. I’m still not entirely sure I wasn’t dreaming the coverage I watched on my computer last night. 

It is interesting how similar Monday’s election in P.E.I was to the September 2014 election in New Brunswick. In my blog breaking down the New Brunswick results, I commented, “so few seats combined with a moderate number of seats changing hands and a moderate number of safe seats usually held by men, mean fewer women.” This is even more acutely felt in PEI where the legislative assembly has only 27 seats, rather than the 49 in New Brunswick. Only 4 seats changed with the Liberals losing 4, the PCs picking up 3 and the Greens surprising victory in one. Size does matter. This is compounded by the fact that it is the third and fourth ranked parties that are more likely to field women candidates and in both New Brunswick and PEI third parties have little electoral traction. 

The other similarity, and the big story coming out of this election, was the success of the Green Party in achieving a seat in the legislature. Peter Bevan-Baker, provincial Green leader defeated incumbent Liberal Valerie Docherty in district 17 (Kellys Cross-Cumberland) in much the same manner David Coon New Brunswick Green Party leader won in Fredericton South.

Here’s what the PEI election looked like for women:

The parties fielded a total of 30 women candidates in the 27 electoral districts. As usual it was the third party and others who fielded more female candidates, but given the small number of ridings not significantly so. For the NDP 9 or 33.3% of its candidates were women, the same for the Green Party which ran 8 (33.3%) women in the 24 ridings they contested. The Liberal Party fielded 7 women or 25.9% of their candidates and the Progressive Conservatives 6 or 22.2%. 

Going into the election there were 7 women in the legislative assembly comprising 25.9% of the body. As of the swearing in ceremony in the next week or so, the number has dropped to five. In a small legislature this is quite significant and represents a drop in women’s representation from 25.9% to 18.5%. There is a possibility of an addition woman joining the legislature because the vote difference between Liberal Adam McIssac and PC Mary Ellen McInnis in district 5 (Vernon River-Stratford) is only 2. This means a recount is very likely and the chance of a change quite high. 

The Liberals elected four women, three of whom were incumbents:

• Kathleen Casey (distinct 14 Charlottetown-Lewis Point) who was Speaker between 2007 and 2010.
• Janice Sherry (district 21 Summerside Wilmot) formerly the Minister of Environment, Labour Justice and Attorney General. The unofficial results at electionsPEI (they become official later this month after review and recounts) have her only 30 votes ahead of the male PC candidate.
• Paula Biggar (district 23 Tyne Valley-Linkletter) who was deputy speaker prior to the election.

The fourth Liberal woman MLA is Tina Mundy (district 22 Summerside-St. Eleanors) which had no incumbent running in this election but had been previously represented by a Liberal. 

The Liberal female incumbent defeated was Valerie Docherty (district 17 Kelly’s Cross-Cumberland). She lost by quite a substantial margin by the one successful Green Party candidate, Provincial party leader Peter Bevan-Baker.

The result is there are 4 (22.2%) women in the Liberal Government caucus of 18. They make up 14.8% of the legislature. In the previous legislature there were 6 women in a Liberal caucus of 22 (27.3%). 

The lone PC woman MLA is Darlene Compton in district 4 (Belfast Murray River) where she defeated Liberal incumbent Charlie McGeoghegan by 208 votes. Darlene Compton lost the 2010 election by only 8 votes, a campaign which saw 99 votes being drawn away from the PC by an Island party candidate. 

This is neither a gain nor loss from previous numbers of women in the caucus, although overall the PC gained 3 seats in this election. Consequently, while the number does not change the percentages do: from 20% prior to Monday to 12.5% today.  As mentioned above, there is the possibility of a second woman joining the caucus, Mary Ellen McInnis in in district 5 (Vernon River-Stratford) if there is a recount and the number changes which would double the number and percentage (25%) of women in the PC caucus.  

Incumbency is a significant feature in this election. Only 7 districts had no incumbents running and of the remaining 20 districts and in only 2 (district 17 Kelly’s Cross-Cumberland and 4 Belfast Murray River) did the incumbent go down to defeat, one a woman (Valerie Docherty in district 17) and the other (district 4) defeated by a woman (Darlene Compton). In the 7 open ridings, in only 2 were women run by a viable party, in both cases by the Liberal Party. Of these two, one was successful, Tina Mundy in district 22 (Summerside-St. Eleanors) replacing a male Liberal MLA. The other Liberal candidate, Romana Roberts lost to PC Jamie Fox in district 19 (Borden-Kinkora) which was one of the PC’s three gains. The PC ran no women in open ridings. Only Green and NDP women ran in PC MLA Olive Crane’s old district (7 Morell-Mermaid), she was replaced by the PC male candidate, Sydney MacEwan. 

There were 9 districts where more than one woman ran of which only 3 elected women: district 14 (Charlottetown-Lewis Point) where the Liberal incumbent Kathleen Casey defeated a PC female challenger, district 22 (Summerside-St. Eleanors) where Liberal Tina Mundy defeated an NDP female challenger, and district 23 (Tyne Valley-Linkletter) where incumbent Paula Biggar defeated challenges from women candidates from the Green and New Democratic parties. In district 18 (Rustico-Emerald) three women vied for the seat running for the Green Party, Liberal Party and the NDP, all were defeated by the male PC candidate. 

As in New Brunswick’s September 2014 election, the Greens appear to have some traction against the NDP, although in most cases not enough that a combined vote would challenge the winning Liberal or PC. However, in 8 districts (29.6%) the Green Party received more votes than did the NDP. This does not include district 17 which they won and would put the percentage up to 33.3%. On top of this in three districts the Greens came within 25 votes of beating the NDP.