The focus of this posting is to share graphic visualizations of what the various candidates in London for Mayor are putting forward in their statements on policy. The purpose is to display the "word salads" that candidates make available to connect themselves with as many people as possible, and deconstruct them to show the central concerns and brand the candidates hope to evoke. The visualization allows for a quick grasp of what the candidate sees as being important and a part of their brand.
It is generally accepted that messaging matters. The "issues candidates make prominent partly determine the outcome of the election" (Vavreck, 2009). In the election business, this is all about "framing" and "priming." Framing attempts to change peoples' opinions by painting issues from a stance favourable to the campaign and gives definition to the candidate. Priming pushes the salience of issues and the considerations that should drive the voters. The idea is that in their statements to the public the candidates not only frame themselves in terms of their positions on issues, they are also informing voters which issues matter and should be the focus of their attention.
Visualizations such as word clouds help us here. Word clouds are graphics of word frequencies and are particularly evocative in summarizing a given 'brand' found in a text or statement. By quickly identifying the keywords emphasized and prioritized in each platform, word clouds provide a visualization of the primary message presented and any secondary focusses. This is significant because certain words link to particular issues. In addition, we get a clear view of the relative usage of keywords to the overall presentation which is not readily seen in numeric word occurrences simply because some candidates are much more fulsome in what they present to the public.
How much communication is made available to the public is determined by a number of features, such as strategic choice, funding, organizational strength, and technical ability in setting up and maintaining an online website. In the case of London's mayoral candidates only two, Josh Morgan and Khalil Ramal have put out clear campaign platforms as pdfs available on their campaign websites. These pdfs were uploaded to a word cloud generator site (wordclouds.com).
For three of the candidates, Norman Miles, Sean O'Connell, and Sandie Thomas, platform and policy information was taken from the candidates' websites and uploaded to the word cloud generator. In the case of the remaining candidates, none have campaign websites or an online presence for their campaigns. Dan Lenart is an exception as he directs to his facebook, however, while giving a view of his personal interests and passions, there are little in the way of clear policy statements or commitments.
Josh Morgan:
We start with Josh Morgan, as he was the first to declare he was running for Mayor and is considered at this point to be the front-runner..jpg)
What stands out is obviously the brand London and that this is a campaign. There is much in the Morgan campaign document, but the strongest messaging is about the city as a community of neighbourhoods focused on supportive development that can be found through city planning, programming, and initiatives. Morgan is the candidate of plans, developments, programs, and initiatives.
Morgan is the closest to an incumbent running for Mayor, as he was the Councillor for Ward 7 for two terms (since 2014), so the focus on existing initiatives and developments already underway is not a surprise. As his statements at a recent mayoral all-candidates meeting (October 3, 2022 King's University College at Western), show, he is presenting himself as a candidate that understands municipal policy and has been active in putting forward and supporting a number of initiatives and plans.
Morgan also clearly gets that an election campaign, particularly at the municipal level, is about name recognition and getting the name clearly in the voters' heads for when they go to the polling booth. The focus on the name even comes with the online address, where he is again front and centre as brand London with a record of engaging with the community and neighbourhoods.
Regarding issues, the two predominant concerns are mental health, associated addictions, and housing associated with affordability. This fits with the two dominant issues in the current election campaign, homelessness and housing. As the CBC found in its survey of what mattered to Londoners, homelessness was at the top of the list with 32.7% identifying it as the significant issue, while the next highest at 21.2% identified affordable housing as the significant issue (CBC, 2022 Oct. 1). This is also tied to issues of safety in the downtown core. While the words "safe" and "safety" are not particularly predominant they can easily be found, and the words "downtown" and "core" do pop out. The words "police" and "paramedics" are also visible which suggests a plan.
Khalil Ramal
As with Josh Morgan, the central brand is London. However, a longer list of issues can be readily gathered from the word cloud. Predominantly appearing are housing, homelessness, transit and transportation, affordability, work (which admittedly can encompass not only the need for work, but the candidate's commitment to work), jobs, police, and safety/safe. These issue are overshadowed by the word "will," which we can take as a statement of Ramal's will to get the issues addressed. Compared to the Morgan campaign which focusses on plans, initiatives, and opportunities, the Ramal focus is on issues. It evokes concerns about what isn't working in London, and what a new council will have to address and fix. He is presenting himself as the candidate who knows the issues and will act on them as mayor.
This is not surprising as Ramal has positioned himself as the challenger in the 2022 mayoral race. The obvious issue to make a clear challenge is transit and transportation. Morgan voted against the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) West Connection plan and recused himself from the vote on the North Connection Plan declaring a conflict (he is associated with the University of Western Ontario through which the North Connection was to run) (Butler, 2019). The result was that funding was not sought from the federal or provincial government for BRT in London's north-west. While the 2022 campaign is not as dominated by BRT as was the 2018 campaign (Electipedia, 2018), it is not completely out of the public notice. In the CBC survey of what mattered in the 2022 election, public transit was the 4th most cited issue considered to be significant (CBC, 2022). This is a clear issue on which Ramal can point to the failings of the outgoing council and Morgan in particular, and so it is the second most mentioned issue in the Ramal platform after affordable housing.
Sean O'Connell
Of note, this is the only word cloud where the word "students" is discernable. It's not big but can be found in the lower left hand side under the word "one." In fact, looking at all the form information available on-line, mention of students is very rare, O'Connell uses the term three times, Ramal once, and the remaining candidates make no mention at all.
Sandie Thomas
What becomes very clear from Thomas' word cloud is her connection to the black community of London, and that her primary commitment is to enhancing inclusion, diversity, and anti-racism in London. This is required to develop and support community health. That this is her primary concern and motivation for running for mayor was made clear in her opening remarks at the mayoral all-candidate's meeting held at King's University College at Western, October 3, 2022.
Of the issues identified as significant in the 2022 campaign, only "transportation" (centre righthand side) makes a reasonably clear appearance in the word cloud.
Norman Miles
Unlike the main competitors in the mayoral election, Morgan and Ramal, climate and bikes are a discernable feature of the word cloud generated from the information available on Miles' website. The word cloud expresses concerns regarding the generally identified problems in London, homelessness, drugs, and housing.
The most dominant word "need," can be read two ways: first, in terms of things that "need to be done," and second, the "need Londoners face." Looking at the platform, the word "need" is used mainly in the first way, things that "need to be done," but the predominance of "homeless," "housing," "drugs," speaks to a recognition and concern for the "need faced by Londoners." It should also be noted, that the word police is quite dominant, along with "officers" and "control." This is something that Miles flags in his platform, the need to more fully police the drug and homelessness problem.
What Isn't There?
As telling as what we see dominating the word clouds is what we don't see as obvious in the word clouds.
Given the responses in the CBC survey of what Londoners saw as the the most significant issue in the election, we would expect to see climate and the environment as much more noticeable in the word clouds. Climate change was the third most identified issue by Londoners. However, it does not make a similar appearance in the platform statements of the candidates.
|
CBC Survey: What
Matters to Londoners |
|
|
Homelessness |
32.7% |
|
Affordable Housing |
21.2% |
|
Climate
Change |
10.7% |
|
Public Transit |
8.9% |
|
Urban
Sprawl |
8.2% |
|
Crime/Policing |
5.8% |
|
Downtown
revitalization |
5.2% |
|
Taxes |
4.7% |
|
Compost/Green
bin |
1.6% |
|
Source: CBC, 1 October 2022 |
|
In the Morgan word cloud "climate" can be found in the lower left hand side next to neighbourhoods and under pledges; it is easily missed. For the record, Morgan does list the environment and climate change as one of the five pillars of his platform. However, in the entire document the word is used only 7 times.
In the Ramal word cloud, "environment" is a bit more obvious found under London on the right hand side, and, the environment is flagged as one of six key features of his platform. Ramal uses the term "climate" 4 times, "green" 5 times, and "environment" 9 times in his platform document. However, it is the last issue of the six addressed, and accounts for only two slides out of 27. Much more is given over to the discussion of homelessness which covers 8 slides.
For O'Connell, climate and/or the environment are not readily discernable outside of the mention of BRT, buses, and his dominant concern with transit. As mentioned above, Thomas' campaign is focussed specifically on the issue of diversity and inclusion, thus it's not surprising that climate and the environment are not mentioned. Climate is noticeable in the Miles' word cloud in the upper left hand side. It is one of the six featured issue areas noted on his website and closely associated with transit issues.
Also missing from the "word salads" put out by the candidates, is the word "taxes." In none of the word clouds is "taxes" visible, although "economic" is reasonably dominant in the Morgan visual, and "affordable," "jobs," and "work" are a focus for Ramal. In fact looking at the word count breakdowns supplied with the word clouds, Morgan mentions taxes twice and taxpayers once in his platform document. Ramal mentions taxes twice, taxpayers twice, and taxed once. Taxes did appear as a debate topic between these two candidates at an all-candidates meeting, with Ramal claiming London had the highest property tax rate and Morgan claiming it had the lowest. Actually, London is neither the city with the highest tax rate, nor the lowest. It has the 8th highest of Ontario cities at 1.3% (Davidson, 2021). None of the other candidates mention taxes, although it should be noted at a mayoral all-candidates meeting, Johanne Nichols said her main motivation for running for mayor was to keep taxes from rising.
The highlighting of issues of race, anti-racism, diversity and inclusion in Thomas' campaign, does illustrate the lack of focus on racism and anti-racism in the platforms of the other candidates. This is surprising given that London was the site of the racially motivated murder of the Afzaal family June 6, 2021. Since, there has been much activity around anti-racism and inclusion efforts undertaken by community groups such as the Youth Coalition Combatting Islamophobia, the Muslim Resource Centre for School Support and Integration, and the London Mosque. This has included work and the creation of an information hub for the #OurLondonFamily campaign by the City of London through its Anti-racism and Anti-oppression Division which was created in May 2021 just before the attack (City of London, 25 May 2021). As recently as the June 2022 marking of the first year of the anniversary of the attack there has been extensive community mobilization (Dewan, 2 June 2022). Thus, it seems odd that there is no obvious mention of racism or anti-racism in the word clouds. The word "inclusive" does appear in the Morgan word cloud, centre left above the www. A further search for diversity nets 3 mentions in the Morgan platform document, while anti-oppression and anti-racism are both mentioned once. In fact, one of the pillars of Morgan's platform is "inclusive city and safe, vibrant neighbourhoods." which could be considered to encompass issues of anti-racism and diversity. A search for these words draws a blank in the Ramal document as it does for both O'Connell's and Miles' websites.
To give the candidates their due, the lack of focus on anti-racism, inclusion and diversity, other than in the Thomas' campaign, appears to reflect the views of what Londoners see as mattering in this election. Racism, anti-racism, diversity and inclusion do not show up in the CBC survey unless they are included in the 3.0% other category not included in the table above (CBC News, 2022). When asked, a CBC London News producer said that of the around 500 respondents only two had expressed concern regarding anti-racism issues (Margison, 2022). (So far I haven't had a chance to examine if the Thomas campaign focus has had any success in bringing the issue to the forefront, i.e., priming, through the all-candidate meetings.)
Finally, Final Thoughts:
Framing and priming for candidates is always a balance of presenting oneself in line with voter concerns to connect with the voter, but also nudging voters in directions that candidates think their policies or solutions should go. What we see clearly in the word clouds is that homelessness is a very dominant issue in the 2020 municipal election. The concern is that London is facing a housing crisis illustrated by skyrocketing unaffordable house prices and rents, but also in the perceived growth in the number of homelessness (and one assumes increased contact between Londoners and homeless people). These concerns were confirmed by this summer's protests and hunger strike by the Fogotten519, a coalition of frontline workers, healthcare professionals, and community members who work with the homeless (Basa, 4 August 2022).
This speaks to the framing of the two main candidates. On the one side, Morgan presents himself as the solid safe incumbent, knowledgeable of the existing plans and initiatives like those agreed upon between the City and the Forgotten 519which ended the protest and hunger strike (Bogdan, 2022). On the other, Ramal positions himself as the challenger by disputing how well the City's initiatives and plans address this and other issues (especially transit), and in his platform makes a promise to listen more closely to frontline workers and explicitly champion the demands that were made by the Forgotten 519. In as much, both frame themselves as being concerned with homelessness which is identified as Londoners number one issue. But, they are also confirming and reinforcing that homelessness is the number one issue. Both are saying this is what Londoners should be voting on, the choice they offer to the voter is the existing status quo of stable already created solutions derived from the city's plan and commitments, or a shake up with new direction driven by community activists. My guess, given the exhaustion of people from the crisis and change over the past two pandemic years and the natural tendency of voters to incumbents and the status quo, that the former framing is likely to be the successful one.
However, there is also something that pops up in all the word clouds (with the notable exception of Thomas'), and that is the word "police." While Morgan has stated this is a reaction to the official request made by the London Police Chief for 52 additional police officers to combat rising violence and lack of coverage of more minor "suburban" crimes (Morgan. 2022) in none of these platforms can increased police presence be separated from efforts to regulate homelessness in London, be it removing encampments or moving groups from downtown to reduce altercations in the downtown core. This certainly connects with expressed concerns in the word clouds regarding 'safety,' the 'downtown,' and the 'core.'
References:
Basa, Jenn. 2022. "City officials meet with the Forgotten 519 amid hunger strike.' CTV London News. 4 August 2022. london.ctvnews.ca/city-officials-meet-with-the-forgotten-519-amid-hunger-strike-16014607
Bogdan, Sawer. 2022. "Hunger strikes ends after City of London, 'Fogotten 519' reach agreement to help homeless.' Global News 980 CFPL. 5 August 2022. globalnews.ca/news/90409231/hunger-strike-ends-city-of-london-forgotten-519
Branham, J. Alexander and Christopher Wlezien. 2019. “Do Election Campaigns Matter? A Comparative Perspective and Overview,” in Elizabeth Suhay (ed.) The Oxford Handbook of Electoral Persuasion. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 184-200.
Butler, Colin. 2019. "How council voted on the BRT and what London is getting -- in pictures," CBC News London. 26 March 2019.
CBC News. 2022. 'You told us what matters most to you this municipal election," CBC News London. 1 October 2022. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/you-told-us-what-matters-most-to-you-this-municipal-election-1.6589022
City of London. 2021. "London announces first appointments to newly formed Anti-racism and Anti-oppression division." London Canada. Tuesday 25 May 2021 london.ca/newroom/london-announces-first-appointments-to newly-formed-Anti-racism-and-Anti-oppression-division
Dewan, Gerry. 2022. "We want to honour the family: Marking one year since the Afzall tragedy." CTV London News. 2 June 2022. london.ctvnews.ca/we-want-to-honour-the-family-marking-one-year-since-the-afzall-tragedy-1.5930375
Davidson, Sean. 2021. "Five Ontario Cities with the lowest and highest property tax rates revealed," CTV News Toronto. 10 November 2021. toronto.ctvnews.ca/five-ontario-cities-with-the-lowest-and-hightest-property-tax-rates-revealed-1.5660362
Electipedia, 2018. London Ontario Municipal Election 2018, Way Back Machine: Internet Archive, web.archive.org/web/201808250002625/https://www.electipedia.ca/london-ontario-2018/)
Margison, Amanda. 2022. Personal correspondence with Amanda Margison CBC London News producer. -- Thanks Amanda! And big shout out to CBC News London.
Vavreck, Lynn. 2009. The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/what-are-your-top-election-issues-in-the-oct-24-municipal-election-1.6582751
Comments
Post a Comment