2018 Provincial Election: London Area Ridings (Part 1)

As we have now entering the last month of the 2018 Provincial election campaign, I've been looking at the area ridings for London, not the least because I've been contacted by the press for comments but also because I have friends and acquaintances running for office and working on campaigns. Here is a description of the three London urban ridings. I'll post descriptions of the three adjacent rural ridings tomorrow.

2018 Provincial Election London Area Ridings

 The three urban London ridings are interesting because over the years they have been represented by all major parties. The rural ridings have tended to go Conservative in the last two decades, but have seen Liberal MPPs in the past. Oxford while dominated by PC Ernie Hardeman since 1995, has elected Liberals and was held by NDP during the Bob Rae NDP government 1990-1995.

London North Centre

As there is no incumbent, this is a riding to watch. The 2014 election was one of Matthew’s most closely fought campaigns and NDP candidate Judy Bryant gave her a good run for her money. There has been some speculation that the Liberal’s hold of the riding is vulnerable. In 2014, Bryant had good name recognition as a former City councilor for Ward 13 (which overlaps the riding). In 2018, it is Susan Truppe, the former Conservative Federal MP for the riding, that has name recognition. The boundaries have also changed now extending from Wharncliffe Road north of the river to Wonderland thus taking in some of what was London West in 2014.

2018 (As if May 6)

Carol Dyck	Green
Kate Graham	Liberal
Terence Kernaghan	NDP
Calvin McKay	Libertarian
Susan Truppe	Progressive Conservative

2014 Results

Deb Matthews	Liberal	35.98%
Judy Bryant	NDP	30.4%
Nancy Branscombe	PC	26.4%
Kevin Labonte	Green	5.6
Salim Mansur	Freedom	1.4
Dave McKee	Communist	0.25
Michael Spottiswood	Pauper	0.15

As London North, it was held by the Conservatives between 1955 and 1977 and was former Conservative Premier, John Robert’s riding. This riding was held by the PC 1988-2003 by Diane Cunningham who ran for PC Party leader against Mike Harris. Deb Matthews defeated Cunningham in 2003 and held the riding until her retirement from the Provincial government, as a cabinet minister and Deputy Premier.

Demographics (according to the 2016 Census):

• Population: 125,362 up 6.2% since 2011.
• Population density: 2,137 /km2
• Average Age: 40.7
• Self-reporting Visible Minority Population: 28,090 22.4%

Language
English	111,060
French	60
Bilingual	9,990
Mother Tongue
English	90,895
French	1,575
Non-official	28,505

Economic

• Median total Income: $30,211
• Prevalence of Low Income (LIM-AT): 23.4%
• Homeowners: 47% Renters: 53%
• Unemployment rate:  9.2%

Education

• No certification 14%
• Secondary 28%
• Post-Secondary 59%

London West

This riding has had its boundaries redrawn since 2014. In 2014, the northeast boundary was Wharncliffe Road north of the river, it now extends west from Wonderland. Below the river it extends east to the Canadian National tracks just shy of Adelaide St., so it continues to include Old South.  This boundary change may cut into the current incumbent NDP Peggy Sattler’s support, making it another interesting riding to watch.

Another interesting feature is the controversy over the unilateral selection of Andrew Lawton as PC candidate by new party leader Doug Ford.  At least one Conservative hopeful, school board trustee, Jake Skinner had been actively campaigning for the nomination over the past year and local business woman Liz Snelgrove had made clear her intentions to run. (Former Conservative Federal Member of Parliament Ed Holder had originally been in the running but withdrew over the Patrick Brown scandal.) Ford unilaterally appointed Lawton the candidate on April 21, only 10 days after Lawton had expressed intention to run for the nomination. The rationale given was 1) as a former radio host Lawton has a higher profile and better name recognition, and 2) there was not enough time to organize a nomination election meeting.   

2018 (as of May 6)

Jacques Boudreau	Libertarian
Jonathan Hughes	Liberal
Andrew Lawton	PC
Pamela Reid	Green
Peggy Sattler -- Incumbent	NDP

2014 Results

Peggy Sattler	NDP	40.36%
Jeff Bennett	PC	29.57%
Nick Steinburg	Liberal	23.72
Keith McAlister	Green	4.19
Al Gretzky	Freedom	2.16

Originally Peggy Sattler won the riding in 2013 in a by-election called after Liberal Chris Bentley resigned in the wake of the gas plant cancellation scandal. She won the riding during the 2014 provincial election, but her vote did drop 1.52%.  While the it is likely the incumbency effect will hold, the redrawn boundaries may be a problem.  

Historically the riding has been held by all three parties. From 1999 to 2003 it was held by PC Bob Wood. In 2003, it was won by Liberal Chris Bentley who held it for ten years until his resignation. The riding was also held by the NDP during the Bob Rae’s NDP government 1990-1995.

Demographics:

• Population: 126, 110 up 5.9% since 2011
• Population density: 1,635 /km2
• Average Age 41.0
• Self-reporting visible minority population: 21,925 17.4%
  

Language
English	121,315
French	1,590
Bilingual	705
Mother Tongue
English	97,255
French	1,660
Non-official	23,900

Economic

• Median total Income: $36,632
• Prevalence of Low Income (LIM-AT): 15.2%
• Homeowners: 65% Renters: 35%
• Unemployment rate:  6.9%

Education:

•  No certificate 13%
•  Secondary 26%
• Post-secondary 61%

London-Fanshawe

The Liberal Party took its time nominating a candidate for the June election. On May 5, Lawvin Hadisi was announced as running for the Liberals in London Fanshawe. Given the provincial polls and the fact that the Liberals came third in this riding in 2014, there probably wasn’t a lot of people clamoring to run this time. In 2014, NDP MPP Theresa Armstrong increased her vote total by 10% from 2011 and received 50.4% of the vote. So, as an incumbent she is a pretty safe bet.

2018:

Theresa Armstrong - incumbent	NDP
Stephen Robert Campbell	None of the Above
Lisa Carriere	Green
Lewvin Hadisi	Liberal
Henryk Szymczyszyn	Libertarian
Eric Weniger	PC

2014

Theresa Armstrong	NDP	50.4%
Chris Robson	PC	23.1
Marcel Marcellin	Liberal	19.9
Wil Sorrel	Green	3.9
Paul Mckeever	Freedom	1.3
Tim Harnick	Libertarian	1.1
Ali Aref Hamdi	Independent	0.3

The riding was formed in 1999 from parts of London Centre, London South, and Middlesex. It was Liberal Premier David Peterson’s riding as London South. The PCs held it from 1999 to 2003, the Liberals from 2003 to 2011 when Theresa Armstrong NDP defeated Khalil Ramal. To illustrate how comfortable the riding is voting NDP, the overlapping federal riding has been held by New Democrat Irene Mathyssen since 2006.

Demographics:

• Population: 119,467 marginally increased 0.1% since 2011
• Population density: 1,038 /km2
• Average age: 39.7
• Self-reporting visible minority: 22,925 19%

Language:

Language
English	109,575
French	90
Bilingual	610
Mother Tongue
English	91,020
French	1,440
Non-official	23,555

Economic

•  Median income 30,564
•  Prevalence of low income (LIM-AT) 19%
• Homeowners 68% Renters 32%
• Unemployment rate 8%

Education:

•  No certificate 23%
•  Secondary 32%
• Post-secondary 46%