2018 Provincial Election: London Area Ridings (Part 2)

Elgin-Middlesex-London

Includes part of south London, North Dorchester and Thames Centre, so it has a bit of the urban mixed in with the rural. Population density is 41.2/km2 so it’s predominantly rural. 

2018:

Leigh Brown	Libertarian
Carlie Forsyth	Liberal
Bronagh Morgan	Green
Amanda Stratton	NDP
Jeff Yurek – incumbent	PC

2014

Jeff Yurek	PC	46.36%
Cathy Cornish	NDP	26.6%
Serge Lavoie	Liberal	20.3%
John Fisher	Green	4.95%
Clare Maloney	Freedom	1.7%

This has not always been a Conservative riding. The Liberal’s held it 1999 to 2011 when the current incumbent, Jeff Yurek won. Yurek won the 2011 and 2014 campaigns with a respectable vote in the high forty percent range (48% & 46% respectively), so he is a pretty sure bet to win this time.  Federally the riding is also Conservative, held by Joe Preston 2004-2015. In the 2015 election he was replaced by his former assistant Karen Vecchio who is the current MP.

Demographics:

• Population: 115,052
• Population density: 46.3 /km2
• Average age: 41.2
• Self-reporting visible minority: 5,075 or 4.4%

Language:

Language
English	107,830
French	10
Bilingual	--
Mother Tongue
English	96,550
French	1,100
Non-official	14,935

Economic

• Median income 34,771
• Prevalence of low income (LIM-AT) 12.8%
• Homeowners 77% Renters 23%
• Unemployment rate 5.9%

Education:

• No certificate 23%
• Secondary 29%
• Post-secondary 48%

Sarnia-Lambton

Includes Sarnia, Point Edward, St. Clair, Petrolia, Plympton, Wyoming, Oil Springs and Enniskilllen. As of May 4, 2018, there was no Liberal candidate nominated in the riding. Checked on May 7, still no official Liberal candidate.

2018:

Kathy Alexander	NDP
Bob Bailey - incumbent	PC
Wes Beech	Libertarian
Andy Bruziewicz	Tillium
Farnina Kodre	Century Party
Jeff Lozier	None of the Above
Kevin Shaw	Green

2014

Bob Bailey	PC	41.09%
Brian White	NDP	35.73%
Anne Marie Gillis	Liberal	17.81%
Kevin Shaw	Green	4.62%
Andrew K Falby	Ind.	0.75%

The Liberals held this riding 1999-2007, but it has been held by the PC incumbent Bob Bailey since 2007. Federally, it is currently held by Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu who replaced the Conservative MP in 2015. Federal Liberal success in the past (1997, 2000, and 2004) could be attributed to vote splitting between the Conservatives and the Reform/Alliance. Andy Bruziewicz running for the Trillium Party in this race was the NDP candidate in the 2008 Federal Election. He has served as a Councilor since 1994.

Demographics:

• Population: 105,337
• Population density: 71.3 /km2
• Average age: 43.7
• Self-reporting visible minority: 5,155 or 4.9%

Language:

Language
English	96,670
French	40
Bilingual	--
Mother Tongue
English	94,070
French	2,200
Non-official	6,900

Economic

• Median income 35,458
• Prevalence of low income (LIM-AT) 13.1%
• Homeowners 73% Renters 27%
• Unemployment rate 8.6%

Education:

• No certificate 15.7%
• Secondary 29.3%
• Post-secondary 55%

Lambton-Kent-Middlesex

Includes Lambton Shore, Warwick, Brook-Alvinston, Dawn-Euphemia (my favorite township name in all of Ontario!), Southwest Middlesex-Adelaide, Strathroy, Caradoc, North Middlesex, Lucan Biddulph, Middlesex Centre, and the Chippewa of the Thames First Nation.

Another riding that did not have Liberal candidate nominated as of May 4, 2018. Checked May 7, still no Liberal candidate.

2018:

Todd Case	NDP
Brian Everaert	Trillium
Brad Greulich	Libertarian
Anthony Li	Green
Monte McNaughton – incumbent	PC

2014

Monte McNaughton	PC	45.1%
Joe Hill	NDP	26.5
Mike Radan	Liberal	20.3
James Armstrong	Green	4.6
Marinus Vander Vloet	Family Coalition	1.24
Bob Lewis	None of the Above	1.2
Dave Durnin	Freedom	0.5
Matt Wilson	Libertarian	0.5

This riding has changed hands a few times, a PC hold from 1999 to 2003, the Liberals took it in 2003, holding it until Monte McNaughton won if for the PCs in 2011. It would be a big surprise if a Liberal is not announced as a candidate in the next few days. If they were to not field a candidate, McNaughton would have a fight on his hands given the combined NDP and Liberal showing in 2014. I can say with a 95% certainty that that is not going to happen. In all likelihood, Mike Radan as leader of the Liberal riding association will likely be running again.

Demographics:

• Population: 105,331
• Population density: 21.6 /km2
• Average age: 42.6
• Self-reporting visible minority: 2,160 or 2.0%

Language:

Language
English	98,725
French	35
Bilingual	4,945
Mother Tongue
English	94,165
French	1,330
Non-official	7,920

Economic

• Median income 34,336
• Prevalence of low income (LIM-AT) 11.8%
• Homeowners 81% Renters 19%
• Unemployment rate 5.58%

Education:

• No certificate 23%
• Secondary 29%
• Post-secondary 48%

OXFORD

Includes County Oxford and a portion of Brant.

I will categorically say with 99% certitude that Ernie Hardeman, PC, will win this riding. This riding like London-Fanshawe was late naming a Liberal candidate. James Howard was announced as the candidate May 3.

2018:

Ernie Hardeman -- incumbent	PC
James Howard	Liberal
Tara King	NDP
Robert Van Ryswyck	Alliance
Chris Swift	Libertarian

2014

Ernie Hardeman	PC	46.2%
Bryan Smith	NDP	25.8%
Dan Moulton	Liberal	21.3%
Mike Farlow	Green	4.8
Tim Hodges	Freedom	0.9
Devin Wright	Libertarian	0.9

Historically this has been a fairly safe Conservative riding. The Liberals did hold it in the 1950s and from 1967 to 1971. It was a Liberal hold for three years 1987 to 1990 which was followed by the NDP during the Rae NDP government 1990 to 1995. Since 1995, it has been represented at Queens Park by PC Ernie Hardeman. This means that Ernie has been the representative for longer than many of my undergraduate students have been alive!

Demographics:

• Population: 113,790
• Population density: 50.6 /km2
• Average age: 41.5
•  Self-reporting visible minority: 3,460 or 3.0%

Language:

Language
English	107,525
French	30
Bilingual	4,640
Mother Tongue
English	100,775
French	1,1200
Non-official	9,870

Economic

• Median income 36,020
• Prevalence of low income (LIM-AT) 10.8%
• Homeowners 74% Renters 26%
• Unemployment rate 4.8%

Education:

• No certificate 23%
• Secondary 31%
• Post-secondary 45%