Skip to main content

2018 Provincial Election: London Area Ridings (Part 2)


Elgin-Middlesex-London


Includes part of south London, North Dorchester and Thames Centre, so it has a bit of the urban mixed in with the rural. Population density is 41.2/km2 so it’s predominantly rural. 
2018:

Leigh Brown
Libertarian
Carlie Forsyth
Liberal
Bronagh Morgan
Green
Amanda Stratton
NDP
Jeff Yurek – incumbent
PC

2014

Jeff Yurek
PC
46.36%
Cathy Cornish
NDP
26.6%
Serge Lavoie
Liberal
20.3%
John Fisher
Green
4.95%
Clare Maloney
Freedom
1.7%

This has not always been a Conservative riding. The Liberal’s held it 1999 to 2011 when the current incumbent, Jeff Yurek won. Yurek won the 2011 and 2014 campaigns with a respectable vote in the high forty percent range (48% & 46% respectively), so he is a pretty sure bet to win this time.  Federally the riding is also Conservative, held by Joe Preston 2004-2015. In the 2015 election he was replaced by his former assistant Karen Vecchio who is the current MP.
Demographics:
  • Population: 115,052
  • Population density: 46.3 /km2
  • Average age: 41.2
  • Self-reporting visible minority: 5,075 or 4.4%

Language:


Language
English
107,830
French
10
Bilingual
--
Mother Tongue
English
96,550
French
1,100
Non-official
14,935



Economic

  • Median income 34,771
  • Prevalence of low income (LIM-AT) 12.8%
  • Homeowners 77% Renters 23%
  • Unemployment rate 5.9%

Education:

  • No certificate 23%
  • Secondary 29%
  • Post-secondary 48%

Sarnia-Lambton
Includes Sarnia, Point Edward, St. Clair, Petrolia, Plympton, Wyoming, Oil Springs and Enniskilllen. As of May 4, 2018, there was no Liberal candidate nominated in the riding. Checked on May 7, still no official Liberal candidate.

2018:


Kathy Alexander
NDP
Bob Bailey - incumbent
PC
Wes Beech
Libertarian
Andy Bruziewicz
Tillium
Farnina Kodre
Century Party
Jeff Lozier
None of the Above
Kevin Shaw
Green

2014

Bob Bailey
PC
41.09%
Brian White
NDP
35.73%
Anne Marie Gillis
Liberal
17.81%
Kevin Shaw
Green
4.62%
Andrew K Falby
Ind.
0.75%

The Liberals held this riding 1999-2007, but it has been held by the PC incumbent Bob Bailey since 2007. Federally, it is currently held by Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu who replaced the Conservative MP in 2015. Federal Liberal success in the past (1997, 2000, and 2004) could be attributed to vote splitting between the Conservatives and the Reform/Alliance. Andy Bruziewicz running for the Trillium Party in this race was the NDP candidate in the 2008 Federal Election. He has served as a Councilor since 1994.
Demographics:
  • Population: 105,337
  • Population density: 71.3 /km2
  • Average age: 43.7
  • Self-reporting visible minority: 5,155 or 4.9%

Language:


Language
English
96,670
French
40
Bilingual
--
Mother Tongue
English
94,070
French
2,200
Non-official
6,900



Economic

  • Median income 35,458
  • Prevalence of low income (LIM-AT) 13.1%
  • Homeowners 73% Renters 27%
  • Unemployment rate 8.6%

Education:

  • No certificate 15.7%
  • Secondary 29.3%
  • Post-secondary 55%

Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Includes Lambton Shore, Warwick, Brook-Alvinston, Dawn-Euphemia (my favorite township name in all of Ontario!), Southwest Middlesex-Adelaide, Strathroy, Caradoc, North Middlesex, Lucan Biddulph, Middlesex Centre, and the Chippewa of the Thames First Nation.

Another riding that did not have Liberal candidate nominated as of May 4, 2018. Checked May 7, still no Liberal candidate.
2018:

Todd Case
NDP
Brian Everaert
Trillium
Brad Greulich
Libertarian
Anthony Li
Green
Monte McNaughton – incumbent
PC

2014
Monte McNaughton
PC
45.1%
Joe Hill
NDP
26.5
Mike Radan
Liberal
20.3
James Armstrong
Green
4.6
Marinus Vander Vloet
Family Coalition
1.24
Bob Lewis
None of the Above
1.2
Dave Durnin
Freedom
0.5
Matt Wilson
Libertarian
0.5

This riding has changed hands a few times, a PC hold from 1999 to 2003, the Liberals took it in 2003, holding it until Monte McNaughton won if for the PCs in 2011. It would be a big surprise if a Liberal is not announced as a candidate in the next few days. If they were to not field a candidate, McNaughton would have a fight on his hands given the combined NDP and Liberal showing in 2014. I can say with a 95% certainty that that is not going to happen. In all likelihood, Mike Radan as leader of the Liberal riding association will likely be running again.
Demographics:
  • Population: 105,331
  • Population density: 21.6 /km2
  • Average age: 42.6
  • Self-reporting visible minority: 2,160 or 2.0%

Language:


Language
English
98,725
French
35
Bilingual
4,945
Mother Tongue
English
94,165
French
1,330
Non-official
7,920

Economic
  • Median income 34,336
  • Prevalence of low income (LIM-AT) 11.8%
  • Homeowners 81% Renters 19%
  • Unemployment rate 5.58%

Education:

  • No certificate 23%
  • Secondary 29%
  • Post-secondary 48%

OXFORD
Includes County Oxford and a portion of Brant.

I will categorically say with 99% certitude that Ernie Hardeman, PC, will win this riding. This riding like London-Fanshawe was late naming a Liberal candidate. James Howard was announced as the candidate May 3.
2018:

Ernie Hardeman -- incumbent
PC
James Howard
Liberal
Tara King
NDP
Robert Van Ryswyck
Alliance
Chris Swift
Libertarian

2014

Ernie Hardeman
PC
46.2%
Bryan Smith
NDP
25.8%
Dan Moulton
Liberal
21.3%
Mike Farlow
Green
4.8
Tim Hodges
Freedom
0.9
Devin Wright
Libertarian
0.9

Historically this has been a fairly safe Conservative riding. The Liberals did hold it in the 1950s and from 1967 to 1971. It was a Liberal hold for three years 1987 to 1990 which was followed by the NDP during the Rae NDP government 1990 to 1995. Since 1995, it has been represented at Queens Park by PC Ernie Hardeman. This means that Ernie has been the representative for longer than many of my undergraduate students have been alive!
Demographics:
  • Population: 113,790
  • Population density: 50.6 /km2
  • Average age: 41.5
  •  Self-reporting visible minority: 3,460 or 3.0%

Language:


Language
English
107,525
French
30
Bilingual
4,640
Mother Tongue
English
100,775
French
1,1200
Non-official
9,870

Economic
  • Median income 36,020
  • Prevalence of low income (LIM-AT) 10.8%
  • Homeowners 74% Renters 26%
  • Unemployment rate 4.8%
Education:
  • No certificate 23%
  • Secondary 31%
  • Post-secondary 45%

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Is Low Voter Turnout Actually A Good Thing?

 [It's a provocative position. I hope my answer is a bit more nuanced. Thinking with a pen, so the views are my own and likely to change as I think about it a bit more.] The big talking point regarding yesterday's municipal election in London is the free fall debacle in voter turnout. Only 25.5% of eligible voters cast a ballot, a significant plunge from the 40% turnout in 2018 (the BRT election) and from the 2014 high of 43% (the get rid of Fontana and the Fontana 8 election).  This low turnout is seen as the reason for the rather surprising outcomes in some of the words, namely the defeat of three "incumbents."* Incumbents are considered safe bets because they have name recognition and represent the status quo for voters. Generally, the mass of voters in municipal election have little to guide their votes other than name recognition and a desire not to change things up. However, when that "mass" of voters decides not to show up, that generalized support fo...
Post a Comment
Read more

Women on Councils: Majorities and Lockouts

 In this blog myself and my fantastic research assistant, Leila Russell Brown (soon to be an MA student at Western University) break down the Association of Municipalities Ontario (AMO) numbers from the October 2022 Municipal Elections (check out  Ontario Municipal Elections (amo.on.ca) ). Overall, according to the AMO, more women put themselves forward as candidates in 2022, 1,939 or 31% of all candidates. This is compared to 1,808 or 27% in 2018. In total, 6,325 women and men ran in 2022. Women won or were acclaimed in 32.3% of the races, an increase from 29.4% in 2018 (AMO, 2022). This puts women on local councils at just above the 30% marker set by the UN as indicative of a critical mass , the point at which government becomes more responsive to women's needs and women are able to influence key decisions. As the AMO reports, the women who ran were slightly more successful than men in the 2022 elections. The success rate of women was 47.2% compared to 43.8% of men. In 2018,...
Post a Comment
Read more

Ur-Fascism: The anti-democratic impulse of Trump's populism

Ur-Fascism: Trump’s Anti-Democratic Populism The King's Hour: Panel Discussion on “The Problem with Trump” King’s University College at Western, September 27, 2017. I have been agonizing for the past week as to what I would say in this address, not because I have nothing to say but because I have too much. How do I frame this in a way to outline coherently my angst beyond a performance of Edvard Munch’s The Scream .   As this is the beginning of the school year, in class we focus on first principles or concepts, so it makes sense for me to return to first principles. First, as a common principle, it is safe to say that Nazi’s are bad. The question this raises though, is why are we even having a conversation where we have to preface our remarks with a reminder that Nazis are bad? We are having this conversation because Donald Trump is a “charismatic populist.” Populism can be a progressive force of democracy when viewed in terms of participatory engagement ...
Post a Comment
Read more